Expected R2

The Expected R² (Coefficient of Determination or "R squared") is the evaluation of the error made when using the predictive model to estimate the future values of the target, over the horizon.

The is the proportion of the variation of the target variable that is explained by the predictive model.

An Expected R² of 1 indicates a predictive model that perfectly captures the variation of the signal. Note that R² does not indicates a goodness of fit. A model with a high R² can predict the variation of the signal but not necessarily be precise on its level.