Impact of Cycles
The section Impact of Cycles is displayed when some cycles are detected in the forecasted time series (see The Time Series Breakdown). It provides details about how the target is impacted by cycles both for the seasonal cycles and for the fixed length cycles. The cycles are named after their recurrence (Yearly Cycle, 6 Days Cycle, and so on).
Each bar represents the impact of the cycle for a given period, that is how much the cycle increases or decreases the value predicted for this period.
Constant Amplitude Cycle
Some cycles have a constant amplitude. This means that for a given period within the cycle the impact of this period will be the same for any occurrence of the cycle. In such cases only one occurrence of the cycle is displayed (there is only one series displayed in Impact of Cycles) as the impact for each period is identical for any occurrence of the cycle.
In the example below, the impact on the prediction for Saturday (Sat) is -85027.87 and this impact is the same every week.
Variable Amplitude Cycle
Some cycles repeat over time with an amplitude which can change. For a specific period of the cycle the impact is different for each occurrence of the cycle. To illustrate this evolution, the impact of the last 3 occurrences of the cycle is displayed in Impact of Cycles (the chart has 3 series).
In the example below we can see that the amplitude of the cycle increases over time.
Smoothing Techniques
When a smoothing technique is used Smart Predict always displays the values of the last 3 occurrences for each period.