Understanding the Relative Impact of model components
The Relative Impact of a component represents the weight of that component in the absolute value of the actuals across the time series. A Relative Impact of n% means that the considered component alone represents n% of the actuals. The Relative Impact for the components adds up to 100%, including the Final Residuals.
The component Final Residuals represents the part of the actuals that is not explained by the time series forecasting model.
Examples
Example 1
In this example the trend alone weighs for 91% of the actuals. The yearly cycle weight represents only small variations around the trend and weighs only for 7% of the actuals.
| Component | Relative Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | 91% | |
| Cycles | (Yearly Cycle) | 7% |
| Final Residuals | 2% |
Example 2
In this example the trend alone weighs for 71% of the actuals. The yearly cycle represents larger variations around the trend and weighs for 23% of the actuals.
| Component | Relative Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | 71% | |
| Cycles | (Yearly Cycle) | 23% |
| Final Residuals | 6% |
Relative Impact Calculation
